1. Introduction: The February Watershed

As the United States enters February 2026, the nation’s immigration framework faces a convergence of executive aggression, legislative rebellion, and societal unrest unmatched in recent history. The administration’s strategic pivot in its second term—moving from a focus on physical border barriers to a comprehensive restructuring of interior enforcement and legal immigration processing—has precipitated a constitutional and operational crisis. This report provides an exhaustive analysis of the policy landscape as of early 2026, with a specific focus on the unprecedented congressional scrutiny facing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its component agencies: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

The month of February 2026 is poised to be a watershed moment. It is defined not merely by the routine friction of divided government, but by a series of high-stakes catalysts: the looming expiration of government funding on January 30, the implementation of a sweeping visa pause affecting 75 nations, and the volatile fallout from fatal confrontations between federal agents and U.S. citizens in Minneapolis. These events have catalyzed a bipartisan, albeit disjointed, demand for accountability that will culminate in a series of critical hearings scheduled for the second week of February.

The operational backdrop for this political theater is the "Project 2025" mandate, a policy blueprint that has systematically dismantled the traditional administrative state of immigration management in favor of a centralized, enforcement-heavy model. While the administration touts record-low border encounters in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 as proof of success, critics and legislative overseers argue that this metric masks a profound erosion of civil liberties, due process, and economic stability. The deaths of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti—both U.S. citizens killed by immigration agents in January—have shattered the administration’s narrative that enforcement is solely directed at "criminal aliens," forcing a national reckoning on the militarization of the interior.

This report dissects these complex dynamics, offering a granular examination of the legislative maneuvers, agency-specific controversies, and the broader socio-economic implications of the 2026 immigration policy regime. It synthesizes data from enforcement logs, legislative schedules, agency strategic plans, and bystander accounts to present a definitive picture of a system at its breaking point.

2. The Strategic Architecture: Implementing "Project 2025"

To understand the volatility of February 2026, one must first deconstruct the architectural shift that occurred throughout 2025. The current policy landscape is not accidental; it is the deliberate execution of the "Mandate for Leadership" outlined in Project 2025, a comprehensive plan developed by conservative think tanks to fundamentally reshape the federal government.

2.1 The "Off Switch" for Legal Immigration

One of the most sophisticated and least understood mechanisms of the 2026 policy regime is the bureaucratic "off switch" for legal immigration. Unlike the overt travel bans of the past, this mechanism operates through the manipulation of administrative capacity. The Project 2025 guide explicitly called for USCIS to "pause" receiving applications for specific immigration types if backlogs became "excessive".¹

In practice, this has created a self-reinforcing cycle of restriction. By reducing staffing levels for specific visa categories or reallocating adjudicators to fraud detection units, the administration creates the very backlogs it then uses as justification to suspend new intake. This "engineered inefficiency" allows the executive branch to effectively halt legal immigration without requiring new legislation from Congress. The result is a system where the "front door" of legal immigration is shuttered under the guise of administrative necessity.¹

This strategy represents a paradigm shift from previous administrations, which typically viewed backlogs as operational failures to be solved with resources. The current administration views backlogs as a strategic asset—a trigger mechanism that grants them the authority to "pause" immigration flows indefinitely. This logic underpins the massive pauses seen in early 2026, particularly the suspension of immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, which will be discussed in detail in Section 5.

2.2 Dismantling the Humanitarian Framework

The strategic architecture of 2026 also involves a systematic dismantling of humanitarian protections. The administration has moved to restrict T and U visas—programs designed to protect victims of human trafficking and crimes who assist law enforcement. Project 2025 advisors suggested minimizing these programs to prevent them from becoming "loopholes" for status.³

Furthermore, the administration has instituted a "Zero Release" policy for border apprehensions. For six consecutive months leading into February 2026, DHS reported zero releases of apprehended individuals into the United States.⁴ This policy requires a massive and costly expansion of detention capacity. To achieve this, funding has been diverted from other agency priorities to support a detention network capable of holding individuals for the duration of their removal proceedings, regardless of humanitarian claims or vulnerability. This creates a "bottleneck" at the border where the only output is deportation or continued detention, effectively ending the practice of "catch and release" but creating a humanitarian pressure cooker within detention facilities.⁵

2.3 The Shift to Interior Enforcement: Operation Metro Surge

Perhaps the most visible and contentious aspect of the 2026 strategy is the pivot toward interior enforcement, colloquially known as "Operation Metro Surge." While the first term of the Trump administration focused heavily on the physical border wall, the second term strategy treats the entire interior of the United States as an extended border zone.

This strategy relies on the deployment of elite tactical units, specifically the Border Patrol Tactical Unit (BORTAC), to non-border cities. These units, trained for high-risk engagements with cartels in remote terrain, are now conducting routine immigration arrests in dense urban environments like Minneapolis, Chicago, and New York.⁷ The rationale provided by DHS is that "sanctuary" jurisdictions obstruct standard ICE operations, necessitating the use of federal assets that can operate independently of local cooperation.

However, the deployment of BORTAC to civilian policing roles has resulted in a clash of operational cultures. BORTAC agents operate with a "rules of engagement" mindset suited for conflict zones, which, when applied to urban streets, has led to escalation and violence. The operational mandate in 2026 is not merely to arrest specific targets but to create a "visible deterrent" through high-profile, militarized presence. This has led to the collateral detention of U.S. citizens and the violent suppression of protests, setting the stage for the tragedies in Minneapolis.⁸

2.4 Statistical Realities of FY 2026

The administration defends its aggressive posture by pointing to statistical successes in border management. However, a deeper analysis of the data reveals a complex picture where "success" on one metric creates failure on others.

Table 1: Comparative Enforcement Metrics (FY 2025 - Early FY 2026)

Metric	FY 2025 Baseline	FY 2026 Status (Jan)	Strategic Implication
Border Encounters	~130,000 / month	~30,500 / month	-76% Decrease. Cited by DHS as "lowest in history" and proof of "secure border".4
ICE Book-Ins	204,297 Total	Trending Upward	65% Non-Criminal. Majority of detainees have no criminal record, contradicting "public safety" narrative.10
Violent Offenders	< 7% of Detainees	~6.9% of Book-ins	Resources are heavily skewed toward non-violent immigration violators rather than violent criminals.10
Asylum Backlog	~1.4 Million	Increasing	Administrative pauses and lack of hearings are exploding the pending caseload.11
Release Rate	Varied	0% (6 Months)	"Zero Release" policy creates immediate need for exponential detention capacity expansion.4

The data indicates that while the administration has successfully choked off the flow of irregular migration at the southern border, it has done so by casting an incredibly wide net in the interior, sweeping up tens of thousands of individuals with no criminal history. The fact that 65% of ICE book-ins have zero criminal convictions suggests that the "public safety" justification for Operation Metro Surge is tenuous at best.¹⁰ This discrepancy between the narrative of "targeting criminals" and the reality of arresting non-violent individuals is a primary driver of the congressional inquiries scheduled for February.

3. The Minneapolis Crisis: A Catalyst for Oversight

The abstract debates over immigration policy collided with violent reality in Minneapolis in January 2026. Two fatal shootings of U.S. citizens by federal agents in less than three weeks transformed immigration oversight from a partisan policy dispute into a constitutional crisis involving the Fourth Amendment, the limits of federal police power, and the basic safety of American citizens. These incidents are the proximate cause of the intense scrutiny agency heads will face in February.

3.1 January 7, 2026: The Killing of Renee Nicole Good

On the morning of January 7, 2026, the theoretical risks of deploying combat-trained border agents to city streets materialized in the death of Renee Nicole Good. Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, mother, and volunteer legal observer, was shot and killed by an ICE agent in South Minneapolis.¹²

The Incident Timeline and Discrepancies: According to official reports and bystander video, Good had just dropped her six-year-old child off at school and was driving her Honda Pilot. She encountered an ICE enforcement operation and, according to witnesses, attempted to drive away from the chaotic scene. The ICE agent, identified in reports as Jonathan Ross, fired multiple shots into her vehicle.¹⁴

The narrative divergence was immediate and stark:

• The DHS Narrative: Within hours, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and agency spokespeople characterized the vehicle as "weaponized." They claimed the agent "feared for his life" and that Good was attempting to run him over. Noem stated, "Our officer followed his training, did exactly what he's been taught to do in that situation".¹⁴
• The Video Evidence: Bystander footage, which quickly went viral, contradicted the official account. It showed the vehicle turning away from the officer. Crucially, audio from the video captured Good saying "I'm not mad at you" moments before the shots were fired, suggesting a de-escalatory posture rather than an aggressive one.¹⁵
• The Aftermath: Perhaps most damaging to the agency's credibility were reports that federal agents prevented a doctor on the scene from providing medical aid to Good after she was shot, potentially reducing her chances of survival.¹²

This incident triggered a firestorm. It was not merely an "officer-involved shooting"; it was the killing of a U.S. citizen legal observer by a federal agent who, unlike local police, enjoys broad immunity from civil lawsuits under the Bivens doctrine.¹² Minnesota Governor Tim Walz proclaimed January 9 as "Renee Good Day," explicitly aligning the state government against the federal operation.¹³

3.2 January 24, 2026: The Killing of Alex Pretti

Before the outrage over Good’s death could subside, a second fatal shooting occurred on January 24, 2026. Alex Pretti, also a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and an ICU nurse at the Minneapolis VA hospital, was killed by Border Patrol agents during a protest/enforcement clash.¹⁸

The "Domestic Terrorist" Label: The DHS response to the Pretti shooting was even more aggressive than in the Good case. Within hours, DHS officials, including Secretary Noem and Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino, labeled Pretti a "domestic terrorist." They claimed he planned a "massacre," was armed with a handgun, and "violently resisted" disarmament.¹⁷ Bovino stated, "This looks like a situation where an individual wanted to do maximum damage".²⁰

The Collapse of the Official Narrative:

This narrative began to unravel almost immediately as video evidence and background details emerged:

• The "Weapon": While Pretti was a licensed gun owner, video analysis showed that during the initial confrontation, he was holding a cell phone, not a gun. The footage suggests that an agent removed the gun from Pretti's holster during the scuffle, prior to the shooting.¹⁵
• The Shooting: Two officers fired at least ten shots in five seconds while Pretti was effectively pinned on the ground.¹⁹
• Character Evidence: The "domestic terrorist" label was starkly at odds with Pretti's professional life as a dedicated VA nurse who cared for veterans. The accusation of a planned "massacre" lacked any corroborating evidence such as a manifesto or additional weaponry beyond his carry pistol.²²

3.3 Institutional Fallout: The FBI Resignation and State Lawsuits

The repercussions of these killings extended deep into the federal law enforcement apparatus. In a shocking development that underscores the severity of the crisis, Tracee Mergen, a supervisor in the FBI's Minneapolis field office, resigned in late January. Reports indicate she stepped down after facing pressure from Washington to discontinue an independent inquiry into the ICE agent who killed Renee Good.²³ This resignation suggests a breakdown in the inter-agency checks and balances that are supposed to ensure accountability. If the FBI is prevented from investigating DHS actions due to political pressure, the "internal affairs" mechanism of the federal government is effectively broken.

Simultaneously, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison announced a lawsuit seeking to expel ICE and BORTAC agents from the state. The lawsuit argues that the federal deployment constitutes a "public nuisance" and a violation of state sovereignty, citing the reckless endangerment of residents.¹³ This sets up a major federalism showdown: can a state government legally evict federal law enforcement agents whom they deem to be a threat to public safety?

4. The Legislative Battlefield: Shutdown Threats and Demands

The violence in Minneapolis has migrated to Washington, D.C., transforming the routine appropriations process into a high-stakes standoff. As of late January 2026, the Senate is deadlocked over the Fiscal Year 2026 funding package, with the Department of Homeland Security's budget acting as the "poison pill" that threatens to shut down the government.

4.1 The Appropriations Deadlock (Deadline: Jan 30)

Government funding is set to expire on January 30, 2026. The House of Representatives has already passed a six-bill "minibus" package that includes funding for DHS. However, in the Senate, the Democratic caucus has unified in opposition to this package specifically because of the DHS component.²⁴

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared on January 26 that Democrats "will not provide the votes to proceed" if the DHS funding bill is included without major reforms. "What is happening in Minnesota is appalling," Schumer stated, explicitly linking the funding vote to the deaths of Good and Pretti.²⁶ With a 60-vote threshold required to overcome a filibuster, and Republicans holding only 53 seats, the Democrats have significant leverage.

Even centrist/independent Senators like Angus King (I-ME), who typically seek compromise, have joined the blockade. King stated, "I hate shutdowns... but I can't vote for a bill that includes ICE funding under these circumstances".²⁴ This unity across the Democratic spectrum—from progressives to moderates—indicates the depth of the anger regarding the agency's conduct.

4.2 The "Sane Demands" List

Democrats have not just said "no"; they have articulated a specific list of demands required to unlock their votes. Synthesized from statements by Schumer, Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and others, these demands aim to impose legislative guardrails on executive enforcement.²⁸

Table 2: Senate Democratic Demands for DHS Funding (Jan 2026)

Demand	Context/Rationale	Strategic Goal
Mandatory Body Cameras	Current funding exists but usage is discretionary. Agents in Minneapolis did not have active cams.	Create objective evidentiary records to counter conflicting narratives.
Ban on "Warrantless" Raids	ICE frequently uses "administrative warrants" (not signed by a judge) to gain entry.	Restore Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search/seizure.
Prohibition of Face Masks	Agents in Minneapolis wore balaclavas, making identification impossible.	Ensure individual accountability for agents involved in misconduct.
Withdrawal of BORTAC	Demand the return of tactical units to the border.	Demilitarize interior enforcement and reduce violent confrontations.
Independent Investigations	Federal-state joint probe into Good/Pretti killings.	Bypass DOJ/DHS internal reviews which are seen as compromised (e.g., FBI resignation).
End of "Administrative" Warrants	Requirement for judicial oversight for entry.	Limit the "extra-judicial" powers of immigration enforcement.

4.3 The "Poison Pill" Dynamics

Senate Republicans are in a difficult position. They argue that blocking the entire funding package (which includes Defense and Education) over DHS policy is reckless. Senator Katie Britt (R-AL), Chair of the Senate Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, argued that the House bill already includes transparency provisions and that a shutdown serves no one.²⁴ However, the "poison pill" strategy forces Republicans to choose: defend the administration's aggressive tactics in Minneapolis and risk a shutdown, or capitulate to Democratic demands and risk alienating their base and the White House.

The outcome of this standoff will be determined in the final days of January. If a Continuing Resolution (CR) is passed without reforms, it will be viewed as a tacit endorsement of the administration's tactics. If Democrats force concessions, it will be the first significant legislative check on the "Project 2025" immigration agenda.

5. The "75 Country" Visa Pause: A Bureaucratic Iron Curtain

While the sound and fury of the shutdown fight dominates the headlines, the administration launched a quiet but devastating bureaucratic offensive in mid-January 2026. On January 14, the State Department announced a "pause" on immigrant visa processing for nationals of 75 countries, effective January 21, 2026.³⁰ This policy is a prime example of the "off switch" mechanism discussed in Section 2.1.

5.1 The Mechanism: "Public Charge" as a Pretext

The pause applies specifically to immigrant visas—the pathway to permanent residency (Green Cards) for those applying from outside the United States. It largely leaves non-immigrant visas (tourists, students) technically accessible, though subject to "extreme vetting."

The official rationale for this pause is "public charge" concerns. The administration claims it needs a 60-day period (which can be extended) to "reassess immigration processing procedures to prevent the entry of foreign nationals who would take welfare and public benefits".³¹ By framing this as a procedural review rather than a ban, the administration seeks to insulate the policy from immediate court injunctions, as courts are often deferential to the executive branch on matters of administrative procedure and national security.

5.2 Analyzing the 75-Country List

The list of affected countries is not random; it represents a strategic targeting of nations that are primary sources of family-based migration and diversity visas, while notably sparing many nations with high volumes of employment-based migration (like India and China, though they face their own separate backlogs).

Table 3: Regional and Strategic Breakdown of the 75-Country Visa Pause ³⁰

Region	Key Countries Affected	Strategic Impact
Americas	Brazil, Colombia, Haiti, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Cuba, Honduras	Targets the largest sources of asylum seekers and family reunification in the Western Hemisphere. Effectively shuts down legal pathways for these populations.
Africa	Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, Somalia, Sudan, DRC, Cameroon	Almost comprehensive coverage of major African sending nations. Disproportionately affects Diversity Visa lottery winners.
Middle East/Asia	Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria	Targets "security concern" nations and high-volume family migration hubs. Reinstates/expands aspects of the 2017 travel ban.
Eurasia/Europe	Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Bosnia, Moldova, Ukraine (implied)	Expands the restrictionist net to post-Soviet states, potentially aiming to limit refugees from conflict zones.

The inclusion of countries like Brazil and Colombia suggests a shift beyond traditional "security" targets to a broader demographic containment strategy. By pausing immigrant visas from these nations, the administration is effectively freezing the demographic shifts driven by family reunification. Legal experts note that for U.S. citizens waiting to bring spouses or children from these countries, the "pause" is functionally an indefinite separation.³⁴

5.3 Operational Chaos and the "Invisible Wall"

The pause has created immediate chaos in the adjudication system. Consulates have cancelled thousands of interviews. Even though the pause is technically "temporary," the backlog it creates will take years to clear. This aligns with the "Project 2025" goal of reducing overall immigration levels by gumming up the gears of the bureaucracy.

Furthermore, while the pause ostensibly applies only to consular processing, immigration attorneys report a "bleed-over" effect into domestic processing. USCIS adjudicators, taking cues from the State Department's stance, are reportedly slowing down Adjustment of Status (I-485) applications for nationals of these countries within the U.S., citing the need for "consistency" with consular standards.³⁰ This creates an "Invisible Wall" that traps legal immigrants in a state of limbo, unable to finalize their status despite being eligible under the law.

6. Agency-Specific Oversight: The February Hearings

The convergence of the Minneapolis killings, the funding crisis, and the visa pause has set the stage for a series of explosive congressional hearings in February. Agency heads will be summoned to testify under oath, facing hostile questioning from both Democrats (focused on human rights and law) and libertarian-leaning Republicans (focused on fiscal oversight and government overreach).

6.1 The Schedule of Inquiry

Table 4: Schedule of Key Immigration Oversight Hearings (February 2026)

Date	Committee	Chamber	Witnesses (Summoned)	Primary Focus
Feb 10	Homeland Security	House	Todd Lyons (Acting ICE), Rodney Scott (CBP), Joseph Edlow (USCIS)	"Transparency and communication" regarding Minneapolis; Operational protocols for BORTAC.7
Feb 12	Homeland Security & Govt Affairs	Senate	Todd Lyons, Rodney Scott, Joseph Edlow	Chair Rand Paul (R-KY) demanded testimony. Focus on fiscal oversight, "use of force," and constitutional violations.36
March (TBD)	Judiciary	Senate	Kristi Noem (DHS Sec)	Originally sought for Feb, pushed to March. Focus on "Project 2025" implementation and accountability.36

6.2 Scrutiny of ICE: Todd Lyons in the Hot Seat

Todd Lyons, the Acting Director of ICE, will face the most intense heat due to the Renee Good shooting.

• The "USC" Detention Scandal: Senators will demand data on the number of U.S. citizens (USCs) detained during recent operations. The detention of citizens like "Javier" in Minneapolis has raised Fourth Amendment alarms. Lyons will be pressed to explain why biometric checks are not preventing the detention of Americans.³⁸
• Rules of Engagement: The discrepancy between DHS policy (deadly force only when an imminent threat exists) and the shooting of a fleeing vehicle (Good) will be central. Senators will likely play the video footage and ask Lyons to justify the agent's decision to fire.¹⁴
• The Denaturalization Task Force: Questions will focus on the new task force within ICE/DOJ. Is ICE actively investigating naturalized citizens for minor errors? Lyons will need to justify the budget for a unit that critics argue is designed to intimidate voters.³⁹

6.3 Scrutiny of CBP: Rodney Scott and the Militarization of Main Street

CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott will defend the deployment of BORTAC.

• BORTAC Training: Democrats will question whether agents trained for cartel warfare are qualified for urban policing. They will cite the Alex Pretti shooting as proof that BORTAC lacks de-escalation skills appropriate for civilian interactions.⁷
• The "Terrorist" Narrative: Scott will be confronted with the agency's initial "domestic terrorist" categorization of Pretti. With video evidence debunking the "massacre" plot, Scott will be asked who authorized that statement and whether he will retract it.²⁰
• Border vs. Interior: While Scott will try to pivot to the "success" of low border numbers ⁴, committee members will press him on why resources are being stripped from the border to police cities like Minneapolis, especially given the agency's mandate.

6.4 Scrutiny of USCIS: Joseph Edlow and the "Off Switch"

USCIS Director Joseph Edlow will face scrutiny regarding the administrative strangulation of legal immigration.

• The "Pause" Mechanics: Edlow will be asked to define "excessive backlog." Senators will search for evidence that the agency is intentionally understaffing lines to trigger these pauses.¹
• Fiscal Solvency: USCIS is largely fee-funded. By pausing visa processing for 75 countries, the agency is cutting off its own revenue stream. Edlow will be asked how the agency plans to remain solvent without a taxpayer bailout.¹
• Naturalization Delays: With the 2026 midterms approaching, any slowdown in naturalization processing will be viewed as political interference. Edlow will be pressed on processing times for N-400 applications.

7. Economic and Social Ripples: The Cost of Restriction

The policies of 2026 are not operating in a vacuum; they are generating significant economic and social friction that complicates the administration's goals.

7.1 The Inflationary Impact

Economists are increasingly warning that the "tight labor market" is a primary driver of inflation in 2026. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) notes that the sharp reduction in immigration is exacerbating labor shortages, particularly in sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality.⁴¹

• The Cause: The suspension of H-2A/H-2B updates (part of Project 2025) and the 75-country pause have choked off the supply of temporary workers.
• The Effect: Employers are forced to raise wages to attract scarce workers, which in turn drives up prices for consumers. This "immigration-inflation" link serves as a potent counter-argument for business-friendly Republicans who might otherwise support the administration.

7.2 The "Brain Drain" and Educational Impact

The hostility toward international students and high-skilled workers is threatening U.S. competitiveness. Project 2025's proposal to discontinue visas for Chinese students and researchers is "in progress".⁵ Furthermore, the revocation of student visas for those involved in protests (a tactic used in early 2026) has sent a chilling message to the global academic community. Universities report a drop in enrollments from key source countries, which undermines the financial stability of higher education institutions and the long-term innovation pipeline of the U.S. economy.⁵

7.3 The Erosion of Citizenship

Perhaps the most profound social ripple is the erosion of the certainty of U.S. citizenship.

• Denaturalization Fear: The rebooted task force creates a "second-class" citizenship where naturalized Americans feel constantly vulnerable to retroactive punishment for paperwork errors.³⁹
• The "Show Your Papers" Society: The detention of U.S. citizens like Renee Good (before her death) and the witness "Javier" implies that simply being in a public space during a raid now carries the risk of detention. This fundamentally alters the relationship between the citizen and the state, particularly for citizens of color who are disproportionately targeted.³⁸

8. Conclusion: A Republic of Statutes or a Republic of Force?

As February 2026 progresses, the United States finds itself at a crossroads. The administration has successfully implemented the "Project 2025" vision of a restrictive, enforcement-first immigration system. It has sealed the border, militarized the interior, and utilized administrative levers to halt legal migration from vast swathes of the globe.

However, the cost of this transformation has been high. The blood spilled on the streets of Minneapolis has pierced the veil of "law and order," revealing a chaotic and unaccountable enforcement apparatus. The detention of U.S. citizens and the manipulation of visa backlogs have alienated key constituencies and unified the political opposition.

The congressional hearings in February are not merely procedural; they are a stress test for the American system of checks and balances.

• If Congress asserts itself: By passing the DHS funding bill with the democratic demands (body cams, BORTAC withdrawal), the legislative branch can re-impose the rule of law on the enforcement apparatus. Senator Rand Paul’s involvement suggests a potential bipartisan coalition for civil liberties could emerge.
• If the Executive prevails: If the funding bill passes as a clean Continuing Resolution, the administration will interpret this as a mandate to accelerate Operation Metro Surge. This would likely lead to further escalations in "sanctuary" cities and a deeper constitutional crisis over state vs. federal power.

Ultimately, immigration policy in 2026 has transcended the traditional debate over "who gets in." It has become a referendum on the nature of federal power itself. Can the executive branch deploy paramilitary forces to American cities over the objection of local governors? Can it suspend the rights of citizens in the name of border security? Can it rewrite immigration law through administrative "pauses" without Congressional input? The answers to these questions will be written in the committee rooms of Washington this February.

Works cited

1. What Project 2025 Says About Immigration, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/what-project-2025-says-about-immigration/
2. Project 2025: Unveiling the far right's plan to demolish immigration in a second Trump term, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.niskanencenter.org/project-2025-unveiling-the-far-rights-plan-to-demolish-immigration-in-a-second-trump-term/
3. Trump's First 100 Days: Potential Immigration Actions, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://forumtogether.org/article/trumps-first-100-days-potential-immigration-actions/
4. Trump Administration Reports Record-Low Border Encounters in October - ExecutiveGov, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.executivegov.com/articles/dhs-cbp-border-encounters-record-low-noem
5. Tracking Project 2025: One Year Later – The Impact on Asian & Pacific Islander Communities - Stop AAPI Hate, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://stopaapihate.org/2026/01/21/tracking-project-2025/
6. U.S. Immigrant Detention Grows to Record Heights under Trump Administration, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-immigrant-detention
7. Heads of ICE, CBP and USCIS set to testify before Congress in February, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-cbp-uscis-house-hearing-february-10/
8. Project 2025 - Wikipedia, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
9. Government set to deploy buoy barrier along Rio Grande near Brownsville - KRGV, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.krgv.com/news/government-set-to-deploy-buoy-barrier-along-rio-grande-near-brownsville/
10. 65 Percent of People Taken by ICE Had No Convictions, 93 Percent No Violent Convictions | Cato at Liberty Blog - Cato Institute, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cato.org/blog/65-people-taken-ice-had-no-convictions-93-no-violent-convictions
11. How the U.S. Asylum Process Works | Council on Foreign Relations, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/how-us-asylum-process-works
12. Can Renee Good’s Family Sue ICE in the Aftermath of Her Killing? The Answer Is Complicated, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/can-renee-good-family-sue-ice-shooting/
13. Killing of Renée Good - Wikipedia, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Ren%C3%A9e_Good
14. Renee Good Wasn’t the First Person Shot in Her Car by ICE. The Justification Followed a Familiar Script., diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cato.org/commentary/renee-good-wasnt-first-person-shot-her-car-ice-justification-followed-familiar-script
15. A Minnesota nurse is the 6th person to die during the US immigration crackdown, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/immigration-enforcement-deaths-six-ee1221223c15f6aee8e4ed8f15fb4dc9
16. Special Report: DHS Secretary Noem defends ICE agent's actions in Minneapolis shooting, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z6u9gbxf0A
17. How ICE and Border Patrol Keep Injuring and Killing People - The Marshall Project, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.themarshallproject.org/2026/01/26/ice-minneapolis-shooting-alex-pretti
18. A second U.S. citizen was killed by federal forces in Minneapolis. Here's what we know, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/a-second-u-s-citizen-was-killed-by-federal-forces-in-minneapolis-heres-what-we-know
19. Killing of Alex Pretti - Wikipedia, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Alex_Pretti
20. Video Analyses at Odds with DHS Statements on Minneapolis Shooting, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.factcheck.org/2026/01/video-analyses-at-odds-with-dhs-statements-on-minneapolis-shooting/
21. 2 federal agents fired their weapons during Alex Pretti shooting, government report to Congress says, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/two-federal-agents-fired-their-weapons-during-alex-pretti-shooting-report-congress-says/
22. AAUP President on the Killing of Alex Pretti: “This Moment Demands A Powerful Response from the Labor Movement”, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.aaup.org/news/aaup-president-killing-alex-pretti-moment-demands-powerful-response-labor-movement
23. FBI supervisor resigns after trying to investigate agent who shot Renee Good, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/25/fbi-tracee-mergen-resigns-ice-renee-good-investigation
24. Shutdown Risk Grows as Senate Democrats Block DHS Funding Over Border Patrol Shooting - FEDmanager, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.fedmanager.com/news/shutdown-risk-grows-as-senate-democrats-block-dhs-funding-over-border-patrol-shooting
25. Shutdown threat looms as Senate Democrats pledge to block funding after Minneapolis shooting, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/shutdown-threat-looms-senate-democrats-minneapolis-shooting/
26. Funding deal begins to unravel as Senate Democrats vow to oppose DHS bill over Alex Pretti shooting in Minnesota, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/funding-deal-begins-to-unravel-as-senate-democrats-vow-to-oppose-dhs-bill-over-alex-pretti-shooting-in-minnesota
27. Schumer: Democrats will block funding package if it includes homeland security money, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/24/schumer-democrats-dhs-funding-package
28. The Democrats' Long-Awaited Spine - The American Prospect, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://prospect.org/2026/01/26/ice-trump-democrats-funding-department-homeland-security-alex-pretti-minnesota/
29. Democrats lay out immigration demands as Congress careens toward shutdown, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/4434526/democrats-lay-out-immigration-demands-congress-shutdown/
30. Immigrant Visa Ban for 75 Countries - Bernstein Shur, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.bernsteinshur.com/insights-events/immigrant-visa-ban-for-75-countries/
31. US YET TO PROVIDE OFFICIAL DETAILS ABOUT PAUSE ON PROCESSING OF GREEN CARD APPLICATIONS - YouTube, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntFo8cYhWK8
32. Visa bond for 25 countries, immigration visa pause for 75 countries: New rules coming into effect from January 21, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/visa-bond-for-25-countries-immigration-visa-pause-for-75-countries-new-rules-coming-into-effect-from-january-21/articleshow/126993528.cms
33. The 75-Country Immigrant Visa Pause: A Comprehensive Guide for 2026, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://jarrettfirm.com/75-country-visa-pause/
34. State Department pauses immigrant visa processing for 75 countries in latest iteration of travel ban, citing public charge concerns, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.epi.org/policywatch/state-department-pauses-immigrant-visa-processing-for-75-countries-in-latest-iteration-of-travel-ban-citing-public-charge-concerns/
35. United States: February 2026 Visa Bulletin – EB Categories Remain the Same Except Modest Advancement in Worldwide EB-3 Professionals and Skilled Workers - Fragomen, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.fragomen.com/insights/united-states-february-2026-visa-bulletin-eb-categories-remain-the-same-except-modest-advancement-in-worldwide-eb-3-professionals-and-skilled-workers.html
36. GOP senator demands DHS immigration chiefs testify after fatal shootings in Minnesota, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-senator-demands-dhs-immigration-chiefs-testify-after-fatal-shootings-minnesota
37. January 21, 2026 VIA EMAIL The Honorable Rand Paul Chairman Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs 340, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026-01-21-Letter-from-Blumenthal-to-Paul-and-Grassley.pdf
38. Minneapolis man says he was detained for hours after witnessing Alex Pretti shooting, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minneapolis-alex-pretti-shooting-witness-arrested/
39. There's No Need to Panic Over Trump's New Denaturalization Office, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/denaturalization-task-force-trump/
40. Trump Administration Seeks to Strip More People of Citizenship | ACS, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.acslaw.org/expertforum/trump-administration-seeks-to-strip-more-people-of-citizenship/
41. The risk of higher US inflation in 2026 | PIIE, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/risk-higher-us-inflation-2026
42. In First 100 Days, Trump 2.0 Has Dramatically Reshaped the U.S. Immigration System, but Is Not Meeting Mass Deportation Aims - Migration Policy Institute, diakses Januari 28, 2026, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-2-immigration-first-100-days